Social applications are the gems of the Web2 era, but what will social applications look like in the Web3 era, and what they may look like, is still unknown, especially since the current infrastructure is not yet complete. Based on this condition, I have envisioned a Web3 social application that can be implemented now, a social prediction application. Below, I will discuss how this application works.
In the Web2 era, the cost of publishing content on social media is too low. Many people make predictions without much thought, easily make claims, and share without deep thinking or fact-checking. Therefore, in this Web3 social prediction application, every message posted must be based on a specific event and make a clear prediction, and users must place bets on these predictions. When users share the message, they also need to make their own judgments and place bets.
This prediction game is somewhat similar to metaculus.com. One of the most popular predictions on Metaculus is "Russian invasion of Ukraine before 2023," as shown in the image below. Users can vote for a probability based on their own predictions.
However, the prediction projects on Metaculus are too specialized and geared towards professional researchers, and there are not enough projects. Predictions on social networks do not need to be so serious and can simplify probabilities to support or deny.
For example, on Weibo in 2018, I made a bet with Yunshu that smart contracts would be widely used within three years, otherwise, I would eat dirt on a live stream. In 2021, I believed that smart contracts were already widely used in the DeFi era, but he disagreed, and we couldn't agree on the standard for widespread use.
But if there was an application like this at the time, making this prediction would require placing a bet, which would lead to a deeper consideration of the definition of "widespread use" and quantifiable indicators, making the prediction more rigorous.
Of course, to avoid disputes over the final results, when publishing information, it is necessary to @ several users with good credibility or delegate to a DAO for arbitration. When the predicted event occurs or the indicator is reached, the arbitrator enters the result for settlement. The losing party loses all their betting assets, which are then rewarded to the party with the correct prediction. The other party receives rewards proportionally to their betting assets. Of course, to encourage users to publish predictions, the rewards for publishers can be weighted higher.
This application can be used to set personal goals, such as betting on quitting smoking for a year and having a few friends act as supervisors.
It can also be used to conduct opinion surveys on controversial events, such as whether Luo Yonghao can repay his debts within N years. Similar ideas have been proposed in the past.
It can also increase the credibility of personal investment recommendations. For example, predicting that BTC will reach $100,000 by the end of the year. Betting with money is much more reliable than just typing on a keyboard. This is more suitable for users in the cryptocurrency industry.
After multiple rounds of training, users are likely to become more humble and rigorous when speaking on social networks. The results of these predictions are more valuable than purely based on public opinion analysis and can also serve as a risk hedging tool.
Technically, this is relatively simple. Since there is a betting cost, there won't be too much information, and writing directly on the blockchain is not a problem. It would be best if the identity system can map the identity system from Web2, so that users can continue to accumulate their reputation from Web2. If someone is willing to do it, I can provide technical support and investment.
Before this application is released, everyone can share their most desired predictions and how much they are willing to bet on these predictions.
This article serves as an introduction, and I will delve into a series of thoughts on Web3 in the future.